Engineering contractors and consultants involved in a recent series of “mega projects” have been subjected to a torrent of accusations in the Danish media. The issue flared up when an academic from Aalborg University, Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, defended his doctoral thesis. He provided scientific evidence to support what we already suspected; that 9 out of 10 mega projects overrun their implementation budget by huge amounts.
I believe that the problem is one of attitude. As I see it, often mega projects are run in an atmosphere akin to an artificial high, fuelled by frivolous ideal scenarios and political euphoria, which almost always ends with a thumping hangover. It is, therefore, time now for political decision-makers and the major players in the construction sector to go cold turkey and open their eyes to consider how we can avoid these financial nightmare scenarios in the future.
Here in Denmark, there is no shortage of examples highlighting the problem with out-of-control budgets: the Great Belt Tunnel was 120% more expensive than planned, the shore areas for the Oresund Bridge went over budget by 69% and the Copenhagen underground was a whole 153% dearer than the political decision-makers were originally expecting. And let’s not even mention the DR (Danmarks Radio) building…
Bent Flyvbjerg concludes in his thesis that the problem is down to deliberate underbudgeting or “strategic misrepresentation” in order to undercut the competition. This is a kind of reverse Darwinism where the project that is based on old-fashioned gut feeling rather than on precise analyses and calculations seemingly has the best chance of winning.
{sidebar id=289} Nowadays, however, there are IT tools which allow you to calculate very precisely how much earth, for instance, needs to be moved to build a section of road or an underground car park. 3D technology is so advanced that entire construction projects can be created and controlled using a single 3D model, thereby helping you completely avoid redoing the model at vast expense and causing confusion with different versions of drawings.
All the same, signed contracts worth billions of Danish kroner are still being based on unsound preparatory work which leaves everything too much to chance. I don’t know whether the problem is a fear of technological change or deliberate strategic misrepresentation, but, in either case, it is considerably detrimental to the sector and society as a whole.
When it boils down to it, it is about changing a culture and having the determination to promote the most accurate and effective methods. Through my work at Autodesk, I have direct experience of how IT, and not least 3D models, can revolutionise work processes and calculation techniques in the activities which account for a significant share of the budget in a typical construction contract.
But, I also see that, for a business to move its entire technical expertise to a 3D-based IT platform is a huge leap. The construction sector and large parts of the manufacturing industry can, in this respect, provide a model as these have been far quicker to realise the benefits of developing their business and staff using new technology.
For example, 3D construction data models are going from strength to strength in architecture and engineering firms across the whole country. Similarly, digital 3D prototyping is gaining ground in the manufacturing industry.
According to Bent Flyvbjerg’s investigations, the problems with budgeting and setting realistic financial expectations for mega projects date back at least 70 years. At that time, people did not have the technological facilities to know any better. Nowadays it is a question, to a large extent, of willingness and of using the technological tools that are available.
We also have a situation in Denmark where there are fewer people available to deal with an ever-increasing volume of work, which is yet another reason for switching to more efficient work processes.
There is no doubt that out-of-control implementation budgets running into billions of kroner are detrimental to society and not least to the relationship of trust between the decision-makers and main players in the sector. It is therefore high time for the parties involved to start using the new tools and break with a bad tradition of running mega projects as if they were on happy pills.
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Pia Christoffersen is GIS manager at NTI CADcenter in Denmark.
