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June 16th, 2014
Meta-Analysis of Crop Simulations Points to Need for Adaptation Measures

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Climate change is changing the face of agriculture – rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and the evolution of pests and diseases all pose threats to food production. Modelling has been used extensively to predict the likely impacts of climate change on crop yields and ranges, but different studies give different answers, often as a consequence of the variety of scenarios tested and analytical approaches used.

Meta-analyses – analysing results from numerous studies – can help bring order to this diversity, identifying patterns and areas of consensus. One such study conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 concluded that up to 2 °C of warming could result in increased yields of wheat, rice and maize, but that higher temperatures would likely result in yield declines. It also demonstrated that simulated crop-level adaptations – such as changes to varieties grown and to agronomic practices – significantly increased yields of all crops, in all regions and at all levels of warming.

Read more in Future Earth

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